Vice President of Sales
Today the National Agricultural Statistical Service of the USDA announced the 2018 objective estimate for the California almond crop at 2.45 billion pounds. This is an increase of 6.5% from the subjective estimate of 2.3 billion pounds announced this past May. This forecast is based on 1.07 million bearing acres. The Nonpareil variety for 2018 is estimated to be down 0.8% while other varieties will contribute to the estimated increase in crop size. The crop for 2017 is currently at 2.257 billion pounds against an objective estimate of 2.25 billion pounds.
This estimate is on the higher side of expectations especially considering the freezing conditions California experienced this past February. It is believed the cool temperatures after the freeze allowed for a prolonged bloom period contributing to a more optimistic crop estimate. Looking forward the industry will closely watch receipts of the crop during the harvest and the market will hear various rumors and opinions in the August – October time period. Typically, one needs to wait until the November Almond Board of California shipment report before having a high level of confidence in the actual crop numbers.