September 9, 2016
Senior Vice President
The first 2016 crop ABC Position report was issued today. Receipts for the 2016 crop are coming in steady and strong like last year. Data through the end of August is insufficient to draw significant conclusions about the size of the 2016 crop. It continues to look slightly larger than the 2.05 billion lbs. NASS Objective Estimate.
Shipments were a record 170 million lbs., up 35% over last year and 22 million lbs. higher than the prior record set in 2013. The increase was driven by early Nonp Inshell shipments to India of 35 million lbs., up 21 million lbs from last August. The U.S. market recorded its largest monthly increase over a prior year since the 2014 Crop. China is up 7%, Europe is up 37% and the Middle East is up 38% after the first month. Even after adjusting for India’s rapid start, shipments are solidly ahead of last year.
Commitments are up 110 million lbs. or 30% over last August. The moderate price levels of the 2016 crop have spurred much more early activity than seen in the past couple of years.
|Market Perspective –
With most early 2016 commitments to be delivered in the fall, the growth bodes well for increased shipments in September and October. Since January, shipments in international markets have been rising. In August, we see the U.S. market also growing as a result of the moderate prices.
Total 2016 supply remains an open question, but the shipment & commitment increases will contribute to a more stable, confident almond market.