Market Update for March, 2016
Senior Vice President
Blue Diamond Almonds
Friday’s ABC Position Report included only 10 million lbs of additional 2015 crop receipts, leaving the final 2015 crop between 1.890 and 1.895 billion lbs. February shipments were 10% higher than in the previous year, with an additional 129 million lbs added to commitments.
While this does not significantly change the outlook for the 2015 crop carry-out inventory, it is a step in the direction of reducing the expectations.
Major export markets that have been experiencing turmoil with contract issues continue to have tight supplies which will gradually generate increased stability and increased demand. Buyers and sellers, in all markets, are looking for less volatility in pricing to generate confidence as we move into the spring. Current price levels are sufficient to once again begin spurring demand for almonds worldwide. Some export markets will move more quickly than others to increase consumption. China, India, Dubai and certain sectors of the EU market can increase demand quickly. The North American market may ramp up on a more deliberate pace, as current pricing is more slowly reflected to consumers.
The next major industry benchmark will be the NASS Subjective Estimate of the 2016 almond crop issued on May 10.
|Market Perspective –
Current almond market pricing continues to represent a value not seen since 2010-2012. With forward commitments lagging behind projected shipments for the balance of the crop year, significant market activity will occur in the next 90 days.
Look for the best September and October shipments in recent years, with 2016 crop pricing also starting at attractive levels. The California almond industry successfully built demand throughout the decade of the 2000’s. The industry is once again focused on growing demand.